Intensity based building damage level prediction model from past Earthquakes for risk assessment

Anbazhagan P., Ramyasri S., Sayed S.R. Moustafa and Nassir S.N. Al-Arifi

Frequently, the extent of damage i.e. damage level in percentage caused to non-engineered buildings from reported earthquake intensity values is unknown, even though intensity scale defines the building damage relating to a particular intensity. The level of structural damage might help in understanding the effect of great earthquakes and the seismic vulnerability of various buildings in different seismic zones. These are required for precise estimation of seismic disaster and also for planning risk reduction. The main objective of the study is to understand the relationship between the extent of damages to structures and the intensity of the earthquake considering past earthquake data and reported intensity values. In this study, around 80 data are collected from past earthquake reports and open source data files. Collected data including various types of earthquakes i.e. interplate, intraplate, plate boundary and subduction, the reported magnitude, reported intensities, type and age of building, hypocentral distances are compiled. Collected data has been studied and analysis has been performed to relate amount/level of building damages with reported intensity and hypocentral distance. Correlation between the percentage damage and earthquake parameters like felt intensities, hypocentral distance, type of earthquake along with the building type has been studied. An attempt has been made to obtain relations between these parameters by performing multiple regression analysis and predicted values are compared with reported values.

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Construction of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker Damage Characteristic Index (DDCI) and Pest Level Identification Ability

Zhanghua Xu, Xuying Huang, Huafeng Zhang, Jian Liu and Chongcheng Chen

Dendrolimus punctatus Walker is one of the most dangerous defoliate insect pests which can cause severe damage to the forest, so it is of great significance to find a characteristic index which can identify the pest level effectively. Taking Sanming City, Jiangle County, Sha County and Yanping District in Nanping City in Fujian Province as the experimental areas, it constructs Dendrolimus pubctatus Walker damage characteristic index (DDCI) from the perspectives of leaf area, uniformity, greenness, moisture and characteristic bands with selected indicators of leaf area index (LAI), standard error of LAI (SEL), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), wetness from tasseled cap transformation, green band B2, red band B3 and near infrared band B4 on the basis of principal component analysis (PCA). This index is coupling to the data of ground-space and its total identification precision for pest damage is 79.35%, the total identification accuracy is 86.94% which indicates that it has good ability of identification for pest level. From the identification precision of DDCI in each level, it is highest for non-damage level reaching 95.56%, after which moderate damage is 83.33% and severe damage is 80.00% while it is lowest for mild damage, only reaching 59.57%. From the identification accuracy, non-damage level is 95.56%, after that severe damage is 95.00% and moderate damage is 91.15% while mild damage is 71.81%.

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Assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar Radial Velocity and Reflectivity Observations in the WRF-3DVAR System for Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Event over the Pearl River Delta

Jiangnan Li, Chaofeng Yang, Fangzhou Li and Yerong Feng

A three-dimensional variationally data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is applied to the assimilation of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data for the 12-h prediction of an extreme precipitation event over the Pearl River Delta (PRD). The impact of assimilation of DWR radial velocity (Vr) and reflectivity (Z) data, both individually and in combination, is investigated. All results after assimilation of the DWR data indicate that assimilation of Z adjusts more significantly than does assimilation of Vr. However, through their combination, the precipitation performance of the model can be further improved. The principal kinematic and thermodynamic features of the model are rather reasonable; in particular, the process by which the hydrometeor content rapidly increased is better depicted. Assimilation of Vr in the adjustment of the initial wind field is most obvious. The initial wind field contains more mesoscale information and the vertical circulation in the initial field is clearer. The assimilation of Z more clearly adjusts the initial temperature and humidity fields and the rain mixing ratio information was added into the initial field.

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The Comprehensive Utilization of Geological Disaster Land in Mountainous Cities of China

Li Yunyan and Lei Na

Since geological disasters occur frequently in mountainous cities, the available land for construction is limited. Land supply and demand contradictions have become highly visible in such cities. To solve this problem of mountainous cities and the potential for geological disasters, the specific part of land that is susceptible to geological disasters should be designated for reasonable use and the disaster response plan should consider land use to establish the trinity ideas of “ecological recovery--planning--technical measures” as a whole. Finally, we study the geological disaster treatment practice of Chongqing city as empirical research.

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North-Lukanian culture and earthquakes in a hidden landscape in Southern Italy (VI-V cent. B.C.)

Del Lungo Stefano

In the first half of the fifth century B.C., a distinguished woman is buried in the necropolis of S. Donato in Ripacandida (Basilicata, Southern Italy). Her relatives choose to put into her grave a jug waterproof with a strange decorative motif (some stars in different colours and a lightning into a circle). This one, reinterpreted through topographical research and historical investigation, could be one of the first representations of an earthquake. This is probably the memory of an ancient event that it is not documented anywhere else and in the Vulture volcano area drew a 'hidden landscape'. Indeed, there the earthquake has been no longer considered for these centuries and the waterproof is useless to recognize another beginning to the historical seismic activity in this area. A 'hidden landscape' is more dangerous than other types of lands exposed to natural hazards because it is quiet and appears like every other site without problem. Instead of it in the past a real disaster was so big, dreadful and incredible that nobody wanted to remember it directly. Mentioning it again it could say to wake up the phenomena another time. Now there are only some tangible clues, very different but they give the same message: something happened there in the past and it is very important to know because it has to do the countdown.

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