Disaster Advances

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Disaster Advances





Applying Scenario Planning Technique to Urban Planning to mitigate Natural Hazards: The Case of Myung-ji in Busan, South Korea

Juchul Jung, Jaeweon Yeom, Hyunsuk Shin, Youngsu Jang, Robert Paterson, Stephen Zigmund and Hyungjun Park

Page No. 1-9

Scenario planning reflects land use planning for buildings and land use. However, its limitation is that it cannot be applied to land use planning in hazardous areas. This study aims to analyze and compare scenario planning results in light of climate change risks and future development scenarios. An alternative analysis was conducted in Myeongji-dong, Gangseo-gu, Busan where urban development has increased rapidly.

The study results indicate that (1) scenario planning can be used to show changes in risk by use area according to climate change and that (2) as urban development scenarios and climate change risks can be integrated; comparative analyses of alternatives can reveal their combined impact.

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Slope Instability Analysis based on Morphometric and Land Use Parameters: An Approach towards Watershed Development using Geoinformatics, South Sikkim Himalaya, India

Sarkar Kallol and Mandal Sujit

Page No. 10-22

In the context of natural resource management, watershed restoration and integrated watershed development, watershed prioritization has obtained immense importance. In this study, morphometric parameters and land use/ land cover analysis have been considered for prioritization of 14 sub-watersheds in South Sikkim Himalaya. At the context of micro level natural resource management, soil and water conservation and runoff concentration, quantitative analysis of morphometric parameters and land use/ land cover have been found of great utility. In this study we have thoroughly analysed linear, relief and shape aspects of morphometric parameters and land use land cover analysis in 14 sub- watersheds of South Sikkim Himalaya and also their prioritization for overall management. First, the ranking has been done to every single parameter in relation to slope instability, then the ranking values for all the linear, relief and shape parameters of each sub-watersheds have been added up to find composite score. Composite score of each sub-watershed has been divided by 13(parameters) and finally we get compound score of every sub-watershed. Based on compound value of these parameters, the sub- watersheds have been assigned final priority rank.

The results achieved from morphometric parameters and land use/ land cover analysis have been correlated to get the common sub-watershed priority falling under each priority. The correlation shows that sub-watersheds ESW1 and ESW2 fall under high priority and ESSW1 falls under low priority based on both parameters. Rest of the watersheds reveal slight correlation and differ in their priority under morphometric parameters and land use/land cover analysis. According the final prioritized map, conservation measures should first be applied to sub-watersheds ESW1 and ESW2 and then to the other sub-watersheds depending upon their priority.

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Evacuation Road, Shelter Plan and Preparedness for Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in Watulimo District, Trenggalek Regency, Indonesia

Usman Fadly, Anwar M. Ruslin, Murakami Keisuke, Shoimah Fadhilatus and Sari Indah C.

Page No. 23-31

In every earthquake and tsunami event, an effort to evacuate to a safe place is the right choice. This is because after the earthquake, the damage caused is usually quite massive and there is little time to react in an attempt to evacuate to a safe place from the reach of the tsunami waves. Watulimo district is one of the districts in Trenggalek Regency which is located in coastal area and tsunami prone zone. The location of community settlements near the coast faced a risk of being affected by the tsunami disaster. The high density of settlements can cause economic losses in the surrounding community and cause loss of lives in the event of a tsunami disaster. There is no evacuation route and tsunami disaster management plan is also an urgency for the needs of evacuation route directives.

This study aims to identify and determine the location of the evacuation point (shelter) as well as compile the direction of the tsunami disaster evacuation route in the Watulimo District Coastal Area. Determination of temporary evacuation points is done by scoring and weighting techniques. Evacuation routes are analyzed using network analysis considering closest distance to the evacuation point. The results of the analysis of the evacuation route produce maps and directions for tsunami disaster evacuation routes in three coastal villages of Watulimo District Coastal Area.

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Transboundary disaster governance between India and Nepal - A perspective study on Kosi basin about risk governance dealing policies and communities

Gade Rajkumar, Gyawali Narayan and Mohammed Irshad S.

Page No. 32-39

India and Nepal both being part of the same Himalayan ecosystem, share benefits of natural resources such as water and energy. Similarly, they also face challenges of water induced disasters like floods, landslides and soil erosion, which affect both the countries and have become prime concern for the administration on both sides. Therefore, both the countries have decided to tackle the wrath of nature jointly. Kosi river basin is one such example between two countries which has set a high standard of mature regional cooperation for more than a century for flood management. However, the cooperation between these countries is at a very high ministerial level for policy makers and technical committee’s set-up to provide day to day management solutions.

However, transboundary communities on both sides are not part of decision making and get very less scope for participation to raise their concerns and voices. It is evident that both the countries have managed to have expertise on various subjects such as early warning, data management, infrastructure management, satellite applications in disaster management (DM), disaster rescue forces and administrative planning for disaster risk reduction (DRR) which is exemplary. But the shift envisaged from response mode to disaster risk reduction is still far away, the benefits of the success are still not reaching the communities on both the sides, as there is no interaction between the communities and no mechanism is available to share the resources. New federalism policy in Nepal and Panchayat system in India can give lessons to include disaster risk reduction into governance on both sides. An urgent need for framework on disaster risk reduction on basin level is felt necessary for the communities between transboundary nations. This study attempts to understand the existing disaster policies and practices across the border governing disasters and also the disaster risk reduction processes. It is imperative to see how community perceives the risks across the border and how can community be a part of decision-making process.

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Flash flood risk zone map development for THANH HÓA, NGHỆ AN and HÀ TĨNH provinces, Vietnam

Huynh Thi Lan Huong and Luong Huu Dzung

Page No. 40-51

In terms of disaster preparedness planning, research on the development of flash flood risk zone maps is essential and many studies have been undertaken globally including Viet Nam. In this study, we propose a method for developing flash flood risk zone maps based on seven components: rainfall, basin slope, river slope, soil (soil erosion risk, forest cover (protective capacity of forest cover), land use (water storage capacity) and specific peak flow. This method is applied to the study area of Thanh Hóa, Nghệ An and Hà Tĩnh provinces, Viet Nam. The produced maps show that high risk areas are distributed along high mountain ranges whereas lower slopes are lower risk areas.

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Reducing Life and Property Risk of Jhelum Basin using Flood Risk Mapping and Early Warning System

Imran Mirza and P. Sheikh Abdul Khader

Page No. 52-58

The Jammu and Kashmir is one of the flood-prone states of Indian Himalayas. In 2014 floods, approximately 268 people died and 168004 houses were damaged. Pulwama, Srinagar, and Bandipora districts were severely affected with 102, 100 and 148 sq km respectively submerged in floods. In this research work a flood zonation map is created along the river Jhelum using ArcMap 10.3. The regions were classified as high risk, medium risk and low risk areas. The area under these zones is also calculated. A hybrid system of wireless sensors and machine learning approach is proposed to forecast the water level of river Jhelum at Sangam area of Anantnag. This hybrid system showed the high accuracy with Average deviation of 0.78 for daily predictions and 0.2 for hourly predictions.

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Spatial Variation of Multi-hazard Susceptibility across India

Paul Rohan, Chanda Kironmala and Dutta Sekhar Chandra

Page No. 59-71

It is well known that the occurrence of one natural hazard can create cascading effect by triggering one or more other natural hazards, making the task of disaster management immensely critical. The information regarding the proneness to multiple hazards in a region could be useful in planning resource allocation. In this context, the objective of this study is to investigate the spatial variation of multi-hazard susceptibility across India. The station data of earthquake zone factors and basic wind speeds at different locations provided by the Indian Standard codes and the India Meteorological department (IMD) along with the information provided by the state disaster management authorities regarding proneness of floods and landslides are utilized for the purpose. Combining this information, the multi-hazard susceptibility is evaluated at different locations across the country by means of a Multi-Hazard Score (MHS).

Finally, a map is prepared which visually presents the variation of multi-hazard susceptibility across India. Such maps are expected to be useful in devising suitable multipronged disaster management approaches for any other country following the methodology which is explained through the study of the Indian subcontinent.

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of occurrence and burnt area of forest fire in Zhejiang province, the subtropical region of China

Guo Jiamei, Huang Zhilei, Heng Fuxin and Qi Shanzhong

Page No. 72-75

Forest fire has long been one of the serious natural risks in China’s forested regions, especially in urban-forest landscape which is a serious hazard to human lives and infrastructure. The frequency and burnt area in spatial distribution of these fires vary over time and across the forested cities in Zhejiang province, Southeast China. In this study, the occurrence and distribution of 19983 forest fires during 1988–2017 in the province were collected and investigated. The results indicated that the spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire occurrence and burnt forest area varied significantly by year and region from 1988 to 2017.

Further, the results also showed that the forest areas in the subtropical region of southeastern China are subjected to forest fire hazards and are the key prevention region under global climate change in future decades.

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