Weight of Evidence Approach for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study at Ossay Watershed Area in Bhutan

Thongley and Vansarochana Chaiwiwat

Page No. 1-9

The aim of this study is to develop landslide susceptibility map (LSM) at Ossay watershed area in Bhutan using weight of evidence and classify the LSM based on its severity. During the preliminary investigation, a total of 164 landslide locations were identified from interpretation of sentinel-2 image, google earth and confirmed through field visit. The identified landslides were divided into training dataset (70%; 115 locations) and the validation dataset (30%; 49 locations). A total of ten conditioning factors were utilized for this study namely: slope gradient, slope aspect, stream power index, rainfall, distance from road, distance form river, normalized difference vegetation index, land use, lithology, and elevation. The weight of evidence was used for the data analysis. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was used for the validation of the LSM. The success rate and prediction rate were 0.8425 and 0.9246 respectively. Both the success rate and prediction rate were accurate enough for the future use by the decision makers and engineers for the developmental activities.

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The Epistemology of ‘Disasters’

Singh Akanchha

Page No. 10-13

Conceptualization of a phenomenon is a deep philosophical exercise. The manner in which disasters are defined has significant implications. ‘Disasters’ as referred to in common parlance, popular media, journalistic works, social science literature, applied fields and policy documents, all have different meanings and undertones. It is important to understand the meaning of the term “disasters” for constructing appropriate theories and models which may form the basis of public policy and programs.

This study traces the evolution of ‘disasters’ as is conceptualized in literature over time. Though there can be multiple ways of inferring from the literature, this study largely deals with the principal approaches of looking at disasters. Also, the categories proposed are more likely to be subjective and non-exhaustive. An attempt is made to link the broader approaches to disaster management with ethical, political and development theory at the same time bringing in perspectives from alternative theoretical positions to better inform the management of disasters.

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COVID-19 and Iraqi Kurdistan: a regional case in the Middle East

Moramarco Stefania, Alsilefanee Haveen H., Qadir Sivar A., Salih Shahla O., Alhanabadi Luma H., Basa Faiq B., Palombi Leonardo and Emberti Gialloreti Leonardo

Page No. 14-16

The unfolding Covid-19 is posing worldwide health and socio-economic threats. As most of the world attention is concentrated upon a few countries, in many fragile areas, the impact of the pandemic on the health systems might be even higher, but risks staying hidden from public consideration. This is the case of Iraq where Covid-19 is a further burden on an already weakened public health system. This study draws attention to the Autonomous Region of the Iraqi Kurdistan, that before the emergency was investing in the rebuilding of its public health system after decades of tensions and conflicts. Information on governmental measures for COVID-19 containment and response, management approaches, prevention interventions, and public opinion reactions have been collected from official sources, websites and from interviews with the local staff working in the field.

The experience of the Iraqi Kurdistan opens new opportunities for reflection on how a war-torn region is dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak. Acquiring knowledge on the health needs of such a fragile area holds a paramount importance for providing preparedness planning and enhancing resilience of the public health system in case of future disasters. The lesson learnt might be useful for other regions living in similar contexts.

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Trends in Global Coastal Tourism Development and its eventuality in the era of Climate Change

Baitalik Anirban

Page No. 17-25

This study presents a picture on coastal tourism development around the globe and its future scenario in the context of climate change. Findings of this study revealed that the coastal tourism is largely concentrated in the Euro-Mediterranean Sea region as well as in the Coral Triangle of Western Asia-Pacific. Countries of the East African coast, namely, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique are having much potential for tourism development. Well known examples of tourism destinations are also found from the coastal areas of Australia, USA and the Caribbean Islands.

This study also demonstrated that coastal and island tourism destinations are highly vulnerable to multiple impacts of climate change. It might be the most vulnerable in the large developing countries and small islands states, but the developed countries of high latitudes as well as the Mediterranean are amongst the least vulnerable from the multiple effects of climate change.

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Time and Cost Optimization of Post-Crisis Temporary Housing Sites using Particle Swarm Algorithm

Sarafrazi Mohammad Akbar and Amiri Mehran

Page No. 26-36

Iran, by having vast savannahs surrounded by high mountain ranges, is located on some of the most vulnerable earthquake belts, and multiple tectonic plates. Hence, Iran is prone to different types of natural disasters. Meanwhile, a planned and optimized post-crisis temporary housing for affected people may reduce the consequences of the crises. In temporary housing of affected people, the goal is to build residential blocks enabling them to reach safe places by least displacement efforts. In order to determine the best suitable way of providing service to the affected communities, it is desirable to accelerate the services in the shortest timetable and lowest possible cost.

Recently, in comparison to other optimization methods, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithm has been widely used and accepted. In this research, a three-step method for temporary housing of the affected community is suggested and utilized for computation. The result of this research determined the best optimal roadmap, in terms of time and operational cost, for the provision of shelter to each specific population. Finally, it is concluded that optimization procedures by the PSO algorithm for optimizing cost and time had suitable outputs, and authorities can properly apply this approach to other crisis-stricken areas.

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Channel migration and banks erosion identification using a remote sensing and GIS analysis, example of Toudgha downstream river reach (Tinghir, Morocco)

Elbadaoui Kamal, Algouti Ahmed and Algouti Abdelah

Page No. 37-44

This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and mobility of a river reach during a period of 12 years by using the record of Landsat Satellite Imagery to elucidate the rates of change and areal extent over which this section of river migrated. Remote sensing and geographic information system provide tools for quantitative and qualitative morphological analysis. The aim of this research is to monitor the channel migration and bank erosion measure of the lower part of Toudgha River located in the southeast of Moroccan central high Atlas since 2008 to 2020. ENVI 4.5 and ArcGIS 10.3 softwares were used for images analysis. The Landsat images were visualized and identified many locations to investigate the channel migration from the upstream near Toudgha gorges to downstream of Tinjdad.

The objective is to study the evolution of banks and channel migration in order to evaluate the rate bank erosion (area and volume ) and its consequences in the fluvial system. The database considered is Landsat satellite images from 2008 to 2020, and we used the Digital Terrain Model of the study area to digitize the river bank limit after treatment of the images in false colors, the small area of analysis where the length of the river was 20 km to reach the outlet of the Oued Toudgha catchment located in the southeast of central high Atlas of Tinghir valley. These data were processed using Remote Sensing and GIS tools and then combined to improve the results. The obtained results showed that the river bank of the study area is unstable during the latest 12 years with a bank retreat rate of 4.06 m.yr-1 and an erosion rate area of 1627040 m² on average for a 20km length, and 81352m3 estimated volume of soil removed per year.

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Numerical Assessment of Stability of Infinite Slope and Probability of Failure under varying Rainfall Intensity

Kavin Kumar C., Heera Lal M. and Khan Mohammad Muzzaffar

Page No. 45-53

Intense rainfall and dissipation of pore water pressure in soil have induced several landslides in Idukki district of Kerala. In this study, effects of environmental factors like rainfall intensities, unsaturated soil properties and topographical condition on stability of the slope are analysed. Soil properties and soil water characteristic curve are determined by field and laboratory tests. Slope inclination of 35o, 40o, 45o and rainfall intensities of 0.2Ksat, 0.4Ksat and 0.6Ksat are considered for an analysis.

The variation of pore water pressure with respect to rainfall intensity and rainfall duration is observed and the variation of factor of safety with respect to rainfall duration for different rainfall intensities and duration is reported for the slope angle of 35o, 40o, 45o. Stability of the slope is quantified in the form of probability of failure for varying rainfall intensities and duration.

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World battles covid-19: disease progression pattern in selected least and worst affected countries

John Shibu, Abdulla and Khan Jwaad A.

Page No. 54-58

Year 2020 will be known for the deadly novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a viral pandemic which hit the earth exactly after 100 years, the years 1918-1920 witnessed the killer Spanish flu affecting almost 500 million people worldwide and proving to be fatal for one-fifth of them. The current research study has made a resolute attempt to estimate the possible number of infected cases and deaths due to Corona Virus by 15th July, 2020, by formulating a progressive mathematical linear regression model which predicts the number of infected cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in some selected countries of the world.

It is revealed that the US tops the chart in both the number of cases as well as deaths, but interestingly India will be having a higher growth percentage, even more than Russia when it comes to having infected cases which may reach to 6 L cases by 15th July, 2020 and 7.57L cases by 30th July, 2020. Surprisingly, as of now, deaths in India are limited to only 9000 due to the low mortality rate. Countries which are severely hit with infections are USA, UK, Italy, Germany, and India. Countries having maximum number of deaths are US, Italy, and UK. Countries like New Zealand, Israel and South Korea have successfully countered the impact of the disease showing recovery rate between 70 – 100%.

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Farmers’ Perception on Climate Change and its Measurement

Jena Damodar and Dibiat Nibal

Page No. 59-66

The information about farmers’ perception on climate change is important to perceive their situation and know how do they expose to climatic risks and risk management practices. Farmers’ perception on various aspects of climate change is also imperative not only to gear towards on-time preparedness and effective adaptation measures (short run initiatives) but also context specific mitigation strategies (long run initiative) to successfully combat climate change. In turn, it will enable different stakeholders including the policy makers and the other development agencies in terms of integrating this knowledge in climatic risk management.

This study is an attempt to review the above areas related to farmers’ perception with the following questions: What are the different elements of perception?, what are the important factors that influence farmers’ perception on climate change?, do farmers’ perception of climate change corroborate with empirical evidences of climatology?, what is the perceptions of farmers’ about various forms of climate change and its effects?, what are the rationales behind different perceptions of farmers on climate change?, what are the linkages between farmers’ perception on climate change and variability of agricultural practices and what are the methodological issues in measurement of farmers’ perception? This review is an attempt to cover the above questions.

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Climate Change and its diverse impact on The Rural Infrastructures in Bangladesh

Hore Ripon and Shahriyar Al-Mamun

Page No. 67-75

Bangladesh is a disaster-prone country which is vulnerable to climatic risks. Climate change has a great impact on rural physical infrastructures. The physical infrastructures include roads, bridges/culverts, markets, disaster shelters, solid waste disposal and small-scale water resources. Due to climate change, the physical infrastructure will suffer from damage after natural disasters, as climate change amplifies the chance of natural disaster. The salinity problem, soil erosion, embankment failure due to soil conditions and disaster issues greatly affect the rural infrastructure. Furthermore, due to the impacts, the repair, operations and maintenance costs of rural infrastructure will be increased. As higher design standards will be required to build climate proof infrastructures, costs of new infrastructure projects will be increased.

This study will be helpful for policy makers, infrastructure planners, stakeholders and implementing agencies like the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) to deploy disaster resilience infrastructures by considering the effect of climate change on rural infrastructures.

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