Ramification of
Global and Local Climatic Variability on Resurgent Cases of Dengue in Delhi, India
Sahu Netrananda and Mishra Martand Mani
Disaster Advances; Vol. 14(7); 32-41;
doi: https://doi.org/10.25303/147da3221; (2021)
Abstract
It has become evident that the global climate is changing rapidly over the past
few decades. The variation and change in the global climatic factors have a notable
impact on the local climate of a region. The changing climate is widely regarded
as one of the most serious global health threats of the 21st century. Among various
kinds of diseases, the most vulnerable to these changes are vector-borne diseases.
In the Indian context, particularly Delhi city is the most vulnerable to dengue,
a kind of vector-borne disease having its highest impact. We sought to identify
and explore the correlation and influence of the global climatic phenomena and local
climatic factors with the reported number of dengue cases in Delhi.
The temporal expansions of reported dengue cases in Delhi have a variation from
its first major outbreak in the city during the year 1996 to 2015. A statistical
tool like Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) is used in this study to establish
the interrelationship and the level of impact and local climatic variation on dengue.
An exceptional negative correlation value of r = -0.82 between the monsoon index
and the dengue incidences was reported during the positive years and also maintains
a very high positive correlation with other global climatic indices. The study here
finds that there is a strong correlation of climatic variation which further influences
the epidemiology of dengue in Delhi.
