Disaster Advances

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Disaster Advances

Vol. 5(3) July 2012

The Autopoietic Restoration Pattern of Low Carbon Ecosystem Equilibrium: Lessons from the 2008 Chinese Ms 8.0 Earthquake

Xu Jiuping *1 and He Yuan1,

On 12 May, 2008 a massive earthquake struck Sichuan province in western China. Based on fieldwork, we found the Earthquake heavily destroyed the ecosystem including ecological subsystem such as forests, meadows, farmland and environmental factors such as the climate, mountains, water and forests. The ecosystem became a complex, non-linear, autonomous living system and its carbon equilibrium was broken. The aim of this paper is to explore a low carbon restoration pattern to rebuild equilibrium. Autopoiesis is the natural ability of ecosystem which will self recover after disaster but what form and how long is uncertain. The study analyzed the ecosystem with elements of equilibrium methodology and concluded that in the process of ecological restoration, if ecological cycle was controlled by increasing carbon sink and decreasing carbon source, the ecosystem would get a new equilibrium quickly and keep sustainable development.

Seismic Stability and Liquefaction Analysis of Tailings Dam

Chakraborty Debarghya and Choudhury Deepankar*

Proper analysis for safe design of tailings earthen dam is necessary under static loading and more so under earthquake conditions to reduce damages of important geotechnical structure. This paper presents both static and seismic analyses of a typical section of tailings earthen dam constructed by downstream method and located at a site in eastern part India to store non-radioactive nuclear waste material. The entire analysis is performed using geotechnical softwares FLAC3D and TALREN 4. Results are obtained for various possible conditions of the reservoir to investigate the stability under both static and seismic loading condition using 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake acceleration-time history. FLAC3D analyses indicate the critical maximum displacement at crest of the proposed tailings dam section is 5.5 cm under the static loading but it increases to about 16.24 cm under seismic loading. The slope stability analyses provide the minimum value of factor of safety for seismic loading as 1.5 as compared to 2.31 for static loading. Amplification of base seismic acceleration is also observed. The liquefaction potential analysis in FLAC3D indicates considerable loss of shear strength in the tailings portion of the proposed earthen dam section with significantly high values of pore pressure ratio.

Geoinformatics based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping using Probabilistic Analysis and Entropy Index of Tevankarai Stream Sub-Watershed, India

Evangelin Ramani Sujatha

Landslides are one of the most frequent natural disasters in Kodaikkanal, India, triggered by the heavy rainfall in the region. There are many techniques to assess landslide susceptibility. This study uses a bivariate probabilistic analysis and entropy index to assess the susceptibility of landslides in the study area using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Tevankarai stream sub-watershed of Kodaikkanal is delineated to apply the model and study the influence of various environmental factors on landslide susceptibility. Six environmental factors – slope, aspect, curvature, weathering, soil and land use are extracted from the spatial database constructed using remotely sensed data and topographic maps. These factors are analyzed in relation to the existing landslide database and weight for each factor is determined using the entropy values and information coefficient. The landslide susceptibility map, prepared using this technique is reclassified into five classes showing very low to very high susceptibility classes for planning purposes. This map is validated using a temporal landslide data-set. Landslide density index (R index) increases with the increase in the susceptibility class indicating the acceptability of the landslide susceptibility map generated using this technique. Very high susceptible class pictures the strain of rapid urbanization.

Estimation of Pan Evaporation using neural networks and Climate-based models

Sungwon Kim,1* Ki-Bum Park2 and Young-Min Seo3

The accuracy of the neural networks models for estimating the daily pan evaporation (PE) is investigated in this paper. The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply the neural networks models to estimate the daily PE, Republic of Korea. Two kinds the neural networks models such as multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM) and co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system model (CANFISM) for two weather stations, Daegu and Ulsan, were used to estimate the daily PE. The climate variables such as extraterrestrial radiation (Ra), sunshine duration (SD), mean temperature (Tmean), mean relative temperature (RHmean) and mean wind speed (Umean) were used to estimate the daily PE using the various input combinations. Penman method was used to compare the performance results of the neural networks models. Therefore, based on the comparisons, it was found that the neural networks models can be employed successfully for estimating the daily PE from the climatic data available, Republic of Korea.

Spatial and Temporal Threat of Slope Failures in the Klang Valley Region, Malaysia

Thanapackiam P.,* Khairulmaini O.S. and Fauza Ab Ghaffar

Slope failures intensity and frequency had increased in the last decade. This study examines the trend change form of slope failures and the directional spatial tendency of slope failures in the last decade in the Klang Valley Region (KVR) of Malaysia. The temporal and spatial changes have great significance on population vulnerability in the KVR. Two significant effects identified are first the increasing intensity - frequency impact of slope failures on KVR population and secondly the spatial direction of the impacts in the KVR. Both of these effects create severe stresses on the population of the KVR. The study observed that the temporal and spatial advances of slope failures would continue to increase in intensity and frequency in the not so distant future as the environment would become more stressful as a result of urbanization

Anomalous changes in summer monsoon rainfall and crop yields over India

Lakshmi Kumar T.V.* and Humberto A. Barbosa

The variability in summer monsoon rainfall along with the summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures are studied with reference to the global tele-connections of ENSO for a period of 1871 to 2004 over India. The interannual and the interdecadal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and by using the Pearson correlation, the impact of Global SST ENSO index on ISMR is examined. The interannual variability of crop yields such as rice and wheat are studied and the canonical analysis has been performed to understand impact of All India rainfall, Global SST ENSO index, maximum and minimum temperatures on the yields.

Geological and Geomorphological Hazard in Historical and Archaeological Sites of the Mediterranean Area: Knowledge, Forecasting and Mitigation

Lazzari Maurizio*1 and Lazzari Silvestro2

This study explains the results of a research programme concerning geological and geomor-phological hazards caused by earthquakes and landslides involving important archaeological and historical sites of the Mediterranean area. Several historical and monumental sites have been taken into account, such as Petra, Dougga, Delphi and some centres in Montenegro. Many researches have proved that a close relation exists between earthquakes and landslides locally caused by medium-high magnitude events. Actually, those events influenced the survival of entire communities and the preservation of their historical and monumental testimonies. Even anthropic intervention has sometimes contributed to the deterioration of monuments and to the disappearance of important historical testimonies. Each of these sites have been analysed according to their geomorphological features and to the dynamic response of the territory, pointing out prevention and static renewal measures useful to preserve the important heritage of the Mediterranean area, partially protected and included in the UNESCO's World Heritage.

Natural hazards in the Abruzzi Apennines (Italy) and the risk to archaeological sites

Galadini Fabrizio*, Ceccaroni Emanuela, Falcucci Emanuela and Gori Stefano

Regulations and advice from different institutions and associations indicate the necessity for preventive measures to avoid future damage to our cultural heritage. To do so, the appropriate knowledge of the various historic catastrophic events (natural or anthropic) that have struck the monuments has to be gained. This knowledge of our archaeological heritage needs: (i) estimation of the risks related to the natural environment, through local geological geomorphological investigations; and (ii) definition of the natural events that have affected the site of interest, through geoarchaeological and historical investigations. These issues imply for example, that a typical aspect of the use of our cultural heritage (i.e. the creation of in-situ museums) also needs to be planned within the framework of the natural/environmental dynamics. Following these guidelines, four Roman archaeological sites in the Abruzzi Apennines (central Italy) have been investigated. These sites are characterised by a natural criticality that is evident in the archaeological stratigraphy and which is detectable in the local geomorphological framework. We have analysed the effects of: (i) strong earthquakes in the archaeological area of Alba Fucens; (ii) the sliding of limestone blocks at Luco dei Marsi (Angitia); and (iii) colluvial events at San Benedetto dei Marsi (Marruvium) and Castel di Ieri. These processes continue to contribute to the local natural hazard and exhibit problems for actions related to the preservation of these archaeological sites. Therefore, it is evident that their characterization is necessary for mitigation of risk and continued preservation and use of heritage sites

Geomorphological hazard and cultural heritage: a case-study of the Roman bridges in the Finalese karstic area (Western Liguria - Italy)

Brandolini P.,* Faccini F., Maifredi A. and Benedettini A.

This study presents the geological and geomorphological surveys that relate to hazards in the Ponci Valley, considered in light of an important archaeological site from the Roman era, in order to define its state of vulnerability. This site contains the remains of Via Iulia Augusta, built along this valley 2000 years ago. Five bridges cross the road which is between 150 m and 300 m in altitude. These constitute the most important and monumental traces of the Roman communication routes in Liguria. Since the Pietra di Finale (bioclastic limestone) is largely found in this area, this rock is mainly used for building these bridges, supplemented by dolomitic limestone, quartzites and other schists. The lithological features, geomorphological evolution and morpho-structural relationships between the outcropping lithotypes caused the formation of karstic landforms and hypogeal phenomena through rainfall infiltration and underground water flow. This study highlights the geological, environmental and cultural value of this site, which is acknowledged as a “geosite” of Mediterranean importance with respect to geomorphological risk scenarios. Firm hazard reduction measures are needed, in particular related to flash floods, rockslides and sinkhole events that could affect the Roman bridge remains.

Reckless foundations, Natural disasters or Divine punishment in the 14th century Italian culture (the storm or tsunami of Amalfi in 1343)

Del Lungo Stefano

In the 14th century, when traditional beliefs and superstitions resurge with arrogance in Italy (like in Europe in general), documentary sources and traditions might help the research on ‘hidden landscapes’, i.e. lands where the memory of a disaster has been fixed only in a place-name, in a sanctuary or in a rural church, built in a place where a miracle has happened. In Amalfi a terrible and destructive phenomenon like a storm in 1343 has been trasformed, some centuries after, in tsunami by economic interests more or less connected. Local history has contributed to forget the real danger (violent storms and sudden overflows), coming from the mountains impending on the town. During Roman period and in the following centuries till the Early Middle Age, peoples knew very well what could mean a vesuvian flow of mud on the coast. Many place-names, given already in the prehistory, remember natural hazards. They tried to prevent new generations to do something of reckless like to build in dangerous places. In the late middle age and now, in the same land it has forgotten this lesson. Only the number of victims can mark how much great are the mistakes.

A multi temporal kernel density estimation approach for new triggered landslides forecasting and susceptibility assessment

Lazzari Maurizio* and Danese Maria

In this work a new method for local landslide susceptibility evaluation and forecasting has been proposed, based on spatial statistics techniques and in particular on kernel density estimation. There are different methods existing in literature for this topic. One of the most used is the statistical bivariate method, based on the selection of different environmental factors. It calculates a susceptibility index that expresses how much each single factor weights and contributes in landslide hazard. The first limitation of the results obtained in this way is connected to the global character of the estimate. The second limitation is connected to the impossibility to have information on susceptibility from the interaction between landslides that are located close to each other, which are second order effects in landslides distribution. For these reasons this work proposes a new method that combines the bivariate statistical method with an approach based on kernel density estimation that was used and calibrated properly for landslides study. It was tested on a multitemporal landslides dataset located in Basilicata region (southern Italy) at Bosco Piccolovillage, where last landslide case history occurred on February–March 2005, inducing damages and collapses of about 80% of the buildings in the village. The test site has been useful in order to obtain a detailed landslide hazard zonation, more sensible to local variations of parameters, such as the spatial concentration and relationships landslide phenomena.

Integrated subsoil model for seismic microzonation in the Central Archaeological Area of Rome (Italy)

Moscatelli Massimiliano1*, Pagliaroli Alessandro1, Mancini Marco1, Stigliano Francesco1, Cavuoto Giuseppe1, Simionato Maurizio1, Peronace Edoardo1, Quadrio Bruno1, Tommasi Paolo1, Cavinato Gian Paolo1, Di Fiore Vincenzo2, Angelino Antimo2, Lanzo Giuseppe3, Piro Salvatore4, Zamuner Daniela4, Di Luzio Emiliano4, Piscitelli Sabatino5, Giocoli Alessandro5, Perrone Angela5, Rizzo Enzo5, Romano Gerardo5, Naso Giuseppe6, Castenetto Sergio6, Corazza Angelo6, Marcucci Sandro6, Cecchi Roberto7 and Petrangeli Pia7

An integrated subsoil model for seismic microzonation in the Central Archaeological Area of Rome is presented in this study. This model was created in the framework of a research project aimed at evaluating the geohazard level affecting Palatine hill, Roman Forum and Coliseum. A multidisciplinary survey was carried out mainly in 2010 including continuous-coring boreholes, in situ and laboratory geotechnical tests, MASW, Cross and Down-Hole tests, ambient noise measurements, Electrical Resistivity Tomographies, Ground Penetrating Radar surveys. The surveying methodologies adopted in the surveying campaign are also presented here. A three step procedure adopted for creating the integrated subsoil model of Palatine hill and surrounding areas is described in detail. This procedure first involves the construction of a geological model starting mainly from boreholes' data interpretation and correlation. Geological formations are here interpreted in terms of lithofacies following their sedimentological features and then characteri¬zed by means of their main physical properties (i.e. grain size distribution, void ratio, unit weight, plasticity index) to define a scheme of lithotypes. The lithotypes represent the "framework" to be characteri¬zed in terms of dynamical properties to produce the final inputs for 1D and 2D numerical modeling of ground motion amplification effects aimed at the construction of seismic microzonation maps.

Site features responsible for uneven seismic effects in historical centre of Melfi (Basilicata, Southern Italy)

Gallipoli M. R.,1 Gizzi F. T., * 2 Rizzo E., 1 Masini N., 2 Potenza M. R., 2 Albarello D. 3 and Lapenna V.1

The study deals with a multi-disciplinary set of tools aimed to identify the factors controlling the seismic effects caused by an earthquake of the past in a historical town. To this end we illustrate a case study based on the analysis of the damage caused by the 1930 Irpinia earthquake (Me=6.7) in a town of Southern Italy. To understand the anomalies of damage, we used an integrated approach that combines geological and geophysical surveys with the analysis of archive sources. Geological surveys were integrated by geo-electrical prospecting and drillings. Moreover, the influence of the soil profile on Peak Ground Acceleration and Housner Intensity was investigated by 1D numerical modelling and the earthquake slope response to seismic shaking was characterised by the azimuthal variation of Noise Standard Spectral Ratio. Finally, a combination among all these data allowed to create a complete picture of the possible causes of uneven damage.

Mitigation of urban vulnerability through a spatial multicriteria approach

Tilio Lucia, Murgante Beniamino*, Di Trani Francesco, Vona Marco and Masi Angelo

Seismic risk management is generally carried out through strategies aiming to reduce building seismic vulnerability, working on structural features and not considering that the concept of vulnerability can be adopted also referring to the whole urban system. In order to adopt a different approach, considering not only building and infrastructure vulnerability and according to the goal of managing seismic risk reducing urban vulnerability, it is strategic to identify in peace time (before disastrous events) which elements, which activities, which functions of a city have prior importance after the event, to guarantee a rapid response and the reestablishment of normal conditions: this means identifying the resilient city. This study aims to define a methodological approach to identify the resilient city, adopting spatial multicriteria techniques and establishing resilient system identification considering functional, social, morpholo¬gical, geological and dimensional characteristics of the considered urban system. In particular, some tests, considering a first set of criteria including accessibility, closeness to urban centres and main facilities, closeness to hydrographical networks, slope, map of seismic hazard, areas at high hydro-geological risk and seismic vulnerability of buildings, have been carried out on a town in Basilicata Region (southern Italy), mainly composed of an old part located on a hilltop, a modern part in the valley and a lot of rural settlements. Multicriteria analysis has been led adopting an additive rule, based on a simple additive weighting method.

Decision-making errors and socio-political disputes over the Vajont dam disaster

Delle Rose Marco

The 9th of October 1963, 200 millions of cubic meters of rock detached from one side of the Vajont Valley (northern Italy) and slipped into a dam lake. The landslide generated water waves destroyed a town and some villages; nearly 2000 persons died. The Vajont dam and surrounding landscape currently represent, as a whole, the “intangible expressions” of the actions which led to such a hydrogeological catastrophe. They have a primary social value and need to be studied and protected as cultural heritage. The debate on the responsibilities of the disaster was influenced by the State Interest and became an ideological conflict. A post-agricultural society, committed to build a new national identity, was the context for the debate. Socio-political disputes biased data interpretation, data production, reports and scientific communication of experts and researchers. However, morphological and geotechnical uncertainties were reduced in time to undertake the countermeasures in favour of the collectivity.

Improving Communication and Collaboration for Drought Vulnerability Analysis in China

Wang Jinsong 1,2* and Hayes Michael J. 2

Drought is an inevitable recurrent climatic event and a natural disaster affecting the greatest spatial extent around the world. It also has wide-reaching impacts on society and environment. Because of its dual characteristics in both the natural and social domains, drought has drawn widespread attention in the geosciences research community, the government and the society. The characteristics of drought also make it a challenge to detect and monitor drought accurately and especially to determine the onset and the end time of drought. Because of this challenge, it is essential to reduce the drought vulnerability and the subsequent drought impacts.